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壟斷與創新，是創投世界的經典命題
2021-01-25 14:18:29.0 来源： 网络 责编：???
- 摘要：
- 不久前，互聯網平台反壟斷問題再次引發廣泛討論。2020年，我們峰瑞內部也做了一些研究，主要議題是流量平台的壟斷和分化，以及流量平台每一次的更叠會如何影響各行各業。
【CPP114】訊：壟斷與創新，是創投世界的經典命題。
不久前，互聯網平台反壟斷問題再次引發廣泛討論。2020年，我們峰瑞內部也做了一些研究，主要議題是流量平台的壟斷和分化，以及流量平台每一次的更叠會如何影響各行各業。
站在2021年的年头，这份内部研究的过程和结果某种程度上有助于回答两个问题：2021年和未来5-10年，是创业的好时机吗？与过去5年比，当下及今后5年的互联网创业会变容易还是更艰难了？
进入正文前，先分享我们的初步结论：互联网永远有新平台。不管是中国还是美国的互联网，在自由竞争的市场领域，从流量结构来看，平台一旦达到垄断阶段，主客观等多种因素会共同促使垄断局面被打破，单一平台慢慢变成多个平台，这对创业者来说，是很好的机遇。（那么，问题来了：下一个是什么？）
新旧流量平台交替的过程中，通常伴随着流量结构、流量介质以及平台结构的改变。每一次互联网流量结构和形式的改变，通常意味着巨大的机会与挑战。（那么，机会是线下还是线上，还是科技或者跨界？）
基础设施变化的节点，对互联网流量及相关商业模式的变化起到重要作用。谁能更好地把握住基础设施变迁带来的发展机遇，谁就更可能占据更多的用户时长。
从PC时代到移动互联网时代，再到如今的視頻时代，每个时代商业模式的形成顺序是相对一致的。当新的媒介开始大量占用用户时间后，新的内容和服务会逐渐挪进去。一般顺序是，较轻的資訊和游戏类行业先入局，然后转向较重的、时长比较高的行业，再到非常重、和线下生活结合密切的行业。
以下是具体分析，希望能带来点启发。祝新的一年诸事顺利，还是那句我们常说的话：初衷不改，理想还在，一直在努力，就总有希望。
App进入成熟期的标志：年轻人占比被稀释，用户“成年化”
我们先回看下中美两国社交平台的发展过程。
01 美国：从数据看，Facebook的份额是如何被Snapchat、Instagram吃掉的？
美国最大的社交平台Facebook于2004年推出，至今走过16年。如果以增长数据来划分其发展阶段，会发现2013年很特殊。这一年，Facebook北美市场的月活增速从2011年的21.6%下降到2013年的5.9%，2013年Q1环比增速几乎为0，这标志着Facebook在北美市场进入成熟阶段。
进入2016年，Facebook在年轻群体（25岁以下用户）中的渗透率先后被两个新的社交平台超过，它们分别是Snapchat（成立于2010年）和Instagram（成立于2011年）。
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"A list of the things you are going to buy," Mary remarked. To regain the highroad we had turned into a northerly fork, and were in as lovely a spot as we had seen all day. Before us and close on our right were the dense woods of magnolia, water-oak, tupelo and a hundred other affluent things that towered and spread or clambered and hung. On the left lay the old field, tawny with bending sedge and teeming with the yellow rays of the sun's last hour. This field we overlooked through a fence-row of persimmon and wild plum. Among these bushes, half fallen into a rain-gully, a catalpa, of belated bloom, was loaded with blossoms and bees, and I was directing Camille's glance to it when the shots came. Another outcry or two followed, and then a weird silence. Ferry led Kendall and me into the woods, the other two remaining. We found rising ground, and had ridden but a few minutes when from its crest we looked upon a startling sight. In front of us was a stretch of specially well farmed land. Our woods swept round it on both sides, crossed a highway, and gradually closed in again so as to terminate the opening about half a mile away. Always the same crops, bottom cause of the war: from us to the road an admirable planting of cotton, and from there to the farther woods as goodly a show of thick corn. The whole acreage swept downward to that terminus, at the same time sinking inward from the two sides. On the highway shone the lighted rear window of a roadside "store," and down the two sides of the whole tract stretched the hundred tent-fires of two brigade camps of the enemy's cavalry. Their new, white canvases were pitched in long, even alleys following the borders of the wood, from which the brush had been cut away far enough for half of them to stand under the trees. The men had quieted down to sleep, but at one tent very near us a group of regimental officers sat in the light of a torch-basket, and by them were planted their colors. A quartet of capital voices were singing, and one who joined the chorus, standing by the flag, absently yet caressingly spread it at such breadth that we easily read on it the name of the command. Let me leave that out. "Quite so. The man was all twisted from his hip, and he had a crooked nose." They were all flying from the plague, which was spreading, and emptying the bazaars and workshops. The Exchange being closed, trade was at a standstill, and the poor creatures who were spared by the pestilence were in danger of dying of hunger. “But she knew them,” objected Dick. “She wouldn’t throw over the wrong ones and she couldn’t get the right ones.” “That’s what we thought.” "Well, if I had sich a name as that I wouldn't expect people to git it right. There's no sense in havin' a Dutch name that makes your tongue crack like a whip. Well, this Mr. McFillemgoody is Si's boss, and he writes a nice letter, and says Si done so well at Chickamaugy that some other boss—a Colonel or Corporal—" "It is not good to be free," he said at last, in a reasonable, weary tone. "In the cold there is a bad thing. In the rain there is a bad thing. To be free is to go to these bad things." "To London!" HoME免费看一级a视频ENTER NUMBET 003shenmegeng.com.cn